For 500 years, a pattern has destroyed every global superpower that followed it. Spain collapsed in the 1600s. Britain lost its empire by 1954. The Soviet Union disintegrated in 900 days. Three empires. Three complete collapses. All following the exact same seven-stage sequence. And the United States has already completed five of those seven stages. This documentary traces the collapse pattern across three superpowers and five centuries—from Spain’s silver wealth that bankrupted the richest empire on Earth, to Britain’s pound that lost reserve currency status within decades of two world wars, to the Soviet Union that went from superpower to non-existent in less than three years. Each believed they were exceptional. Each believed the pattern wouldn’t apply to them. Each followed the sequence to total collapse anyway. The seven-stage pattern is identical across all three empires: Stage 1 – Military Overextension, Stage 2 – Currency Debasement, Stage 3 – Debt Spiral, Stage 4 – Loss of Productive Capacity, Stage 5 – Social Decay, Stage 6 – Loss of Reserve Currency Status, Stage 7 – Collapse. Spain completed all seven stages between 1590 and 1670. Britain completed them between 1914 and 1954. The Soviet Union completed them between 1945 and 1991. And the United States is currently at Stage 5, with clear warning signs of Stage 6 emerging. 💬 Why Watch This This isn’t speculation about some uncertain future. This is pattern recognition across 500 years of documented history. Three empires followed seven stages. All three collapsed completely. The United States has completed five stages and is showing early signs of stage six. The math is unsustainable—$36 trillion debt growing by $2 trillion annually, interest payments exceeding $1 trillion, no political will to address it. The pattern says Stage 6 and 7 are inevitable. The only question is timing. History doesn’t predict the exact date, but it shows the sequence with absolute certainty. Understanding where we are in that sequence determines whether you prepare or get blindsided.

By Abijohn.com

Introduction

Historians, economists and sociologists have long noted that great powers don’t collapse overnight — rather, they follow a multi-stage decline where economic, military, institutional and cultural cracks widen over decades. A widely circulated version of this is the “7-stage collapse pattern,” described in recent commentary as having played out with states such as Spain (16th-17th century), Britain (20th century) and Soviet Union (1945-1991). According to proponents of the pattern, the United States is currently in Stage 5. Collapse Wiki+4freerepublic.com+4munknee.com+4

This article explores the origins of the pattern, elucidates each of the seven stages, examines historical case studies (Spain, Britain, USSR), analyses the evidence for the U.S. as “at Stage 5”, and considers what “Stage 6” and “Stage 7” might look like — along with whether the U.S. can reverse course.

Origins & Theoretical Underpinnings

While the specific “7-stage” phrasing seems popularised in online blogs and commentary (e.g., a October 2025 post on FreeRepublic) freerepublic.com there are many academic and quasi-academic models of societal collapse which share overlapping ideas:

• Dmitry Orlov’s Five Stages of Collapse outlines stages from financial through cultural collapse. cleaves.lingama.net+1

• The “Seneca Effect” (Ugo Bardi) argues that decline tends to be rapid once certain tipping points are passed. Wikipedia

• More generally, Joseph Tainter’s theory of the collapse of complex societies emphasises diminishing returns on complexity. arXiv

• CollapseWiki and related sites present multi-stage models including 5 or 7 stages (financial → commercial → political → social → cultural → ecological etc). Collapse Wiki+1

The “7-stage” model often cited runs as follows:

1. Military Overextension

2. Currency Debasement

3. Debt Spiral

4. Loss of Productive Capacity

5. Social Decay

6. Loss of Reserve Currency or Global Hegemony

7. Full Collapse or Disintegration freerepublic.com

Although this exact sequence is more popular commentary than peer-reviewed scholarship, it draws on historical patterns of decline and provides a heuristic for understanding power transitions.

The Seven Stages Explained

Stage 1 – Military Overextension
At this stage a power stretches itself: wars abroad, costly commitments, defence budgets balloon while the economy fails to pay.
Stage 2 – Currency Debasement
In parallel or following, the state begins to erode the value of its currency, often to finance deficits or maintain military/imperial commitments.
Stage 3 – Debt Spiral
Public and private debt accumulate, interest burdens rise, growth stalls, confidence erodes.
Stage 4 – Loss of Productive Capacity
Factories close; infrastructure decays; the economy becomes less competitive.
Stage 5 – Social Decay
Trust in institutions, in fellow citizens, in the future weakens. Inequality rises, community bonds fray, violence or fragmentation increase. (Comparable to Orlov’s Stage 4 Social Collapse). resilience+1
Stage 6 – Loss of Reserve Currency or Global Hegemony
When the state loses its central role in global systems – e.g., the currency loses reserve status, or alliances break down – the power’s international dominance fades.
Stage 7 – Collapse / Disintegration
The final stage where the state ceases to function as it once did; institutions collapse, fragmentation may occur, sovereignty may be lost or radically transformed.

Historical Case Studies

Spain
In the 1500s-1600s, Spain became the richest empire via American silver. But military campaigns and over-extension (Stage 1) combined with inflation from silver (Stage 2), growing debts (Stage 3), declining industry (Stage 4), social unrest and demographic decline (Stage 5), eventual loss of European power status (Stage 6) and effective collapse of imperial dominance by 1700 (Stage 7).

Britain
Britain’s decline followed a somewhat later path: large global commitments in two world wars (Stage 1), weakening pound sterling and economic stresses (Stage 2), heavy debt (Stage 3), post-war deindustrialisation (Stage 4), social fragmentation and rising inequality (Stage 5), loss of reserve currency status in part (Stage 6), and the winding down of empire by the 1950s-60s (Stage 7).

Soviet Union
The USSR’s decline was exceptionally rapid: costly arms race and geopolitical overreach (Stage 1), internal currency and economic stagnation (Stage 2), massive external debt and hidden deficits (Stage 3), declining productivity in heavy industry (Stage 4), social disintegration in the 1980s (Stage 5), loss of superpower status (Stage 6), and formal dissolution in 1991 (Stage 7) within 900 days of collapse. Wikipedia

These cases support the idea of a recurring pattern, though each power had unique triggers.

Is the United States at Stage 5?

Commentators arguing the U.S. is in Stage 5 point to various indicators:

• High national debt to GDP, large military commitments abroad (Stages 1-3)

• Deindustrialisation and declining productivity (Stage 4)

• Increase in polarisation, erosion of trust in institutions, social fragmentation (Stage 5)

For instance, the “5-Stages of Collapse” list places the U.S. in the social/cultural decay phase. munknee.com+1 The “7-Stage” blog post claims: “the United States is currently at Stage 5, with clear warning signs of Stage 6 emerging.” freerepublic.com

Evidence for Stage 5 in the U.S.:

• Political polarisation and declining trust in government and media

• Growing income inequality and geographic divergence

• Decline in civic institutions, community membership and social cohesion

• Signs of erosion of the “American Dream” narrative

But important caveats:

• The U.S. still retains major global economic, military and institutional advantages; many argue it has not irrevocably entered collapse

• The model is heuristic, not deterministic; reversal is possible

• Some “Stage 5” indicators may overlap with healthy transformations rather than irreversible decay

What Would Stage 6 & Stage 7 Look Like for the U.S.?

Stage 6 – Loss of Reserve Currency / Global Hegemony

• The U.S. dollar losing its reserve currency status

• NATO/alliances fracturing; U.S. military dominance diminished

• Global financial institutions diverging from dollar network

Stage 7 – Collapse / Disintegration

• Severe institutional breakdown: perhaps states or regions assert autonomy

• Sharp decline in living standards, widespread civil instability

• U.S. retreats from global leadership; governance reverts or radically transforms

While this may sound alarmist, the historical model suggests that collapse is a slow creep rather than an immediate event.

Can the U.S. Reverse the Pattern?

Yes — if key interventions are made:

• Reduce over-reach: scaling back military/foreign commitments to manageable levels

• Repair institutions: strengthening civic trust, transparent governance, accountability

• Invest in productive capacity: rebuild manufacturing, infrastructure, technology leadership

• Foster social cohesion: address inequality, rebuild communities, renew “shared narrative”

In effect, reversing the pattern might delay or avoid entering Stage 6-7, redirecting trajectory toward renewal rather than collapse.

Critiques and Limitations of the Pattern

• The 7-stage model is not academically validated in full; many scholars treat it as speculative

• Collapse is rarely linear; feedback loops, external shocks and idiosyncratic factors matter

• Comparisons across differing time-periods and geographies can oversimplify complex historical processes

• It may suffer from apophenia (seeing a pattern where none strictly exists) Wikipedia

Final Thoughts

The “7-stage collapse pattern” offers a provocative lens to view great-power decline: military overreach, financial strain, industrial decay, social fragmentation, and eventual disintegration. Spain, Britain and the Soviet Union each appear to have followed variations of this path.

If the U.S. is indeed at Stage 5 (social decay), the stakes are high but not predetermined. The next decades will test whether it can pivot toward renewal or slide into Stage 6 and beyond.

In the words of history: collapse is not inevitable — but it is avoidable only if we recognise the pattern, learn the lessons, and act accordingly.

References

• “The Seven-Stage Collapse Pattern: Spain, Britain, USSR… USA Is At Stage 5.” FreeRepublic, Oct 26 2025. freerepublic.com

• Orlov, Dmitry. The Five Stages of Collapse. 2013. cleaves.lingama.net+1

• “Transition and the Collapse Scenario.” Resilience.org, 2011. resilience

• “Toward a General Theory of Societal Collapse.” Schunck et al., arXiv, 2021. arXiv

• “The collapse of cooperation: the endogeneity of institutional break-up.” Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 2021. SpringerLink

• Additional commentary on collapse cycles. futuremastery.com+1